Democrats flip Trump's Mar-a-Lago district with first-time candidate Emily Gregory

A first-time candidate gave Democrats a historic win in the special elections for Florida House District 87, home to President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, on Tuesday. Emily Gregory reportedly secured 51.2% of the vote to defeat Republican Jon Maples, who had "complete and total endorsement" of the President. Notably, Trump had carried the district by 11 points in the 2024 election.

What makes the results a bigger setback for Republicans is that Gregory, a small business owner and public health expert, became the first Democrat to represent the Palm Beach County district this century. The special election was triggered by the resignation of Republican Mike Caruso, who vacated the seat to become the Palm Beach County Clerk and Comptroller. Caruso had won re-election in 2024 by a 19-point margin.

As per a Florida Politics report, Gregory's campaign focused on affordability and social issues, addressing funding for public education, better access to healthcare, and high property insurance and housing costs. Maples, on the other hand, deeply aligned his campaign with Florida's state leadership and President Trump's "America First" agenda. The President reportedly voted for Maples by mail-in ballot, a process he has vocally opposed. 

Democrats have hailed Gregory's victory as a sign of shifting momentum ahead of this year's midterm elections. "Floridians have made it clear they want real action on the affordability crisis and while Republicans have ignored them," Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell said, pointing our that Gregory ran a campaign "focused on pragmatic solutions to lower costs, raise wages, and build a more affordable state for all working families and seniors that resonated with the people of Palm Beach County." U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced on X that Democrats will "crush House Republicans in November if DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map." "Democrats FLIPPED a state House seat in Palm Beach that Trump won by 11 points in 2024. Mar-a-Lago will now be represented by Emily Gregory, a strong Democratic voice," he said.

For Republicans, the election setback comes at a time when President Trump's approval ratings are dropping sharply, and his administration is in the middle of several contentious developments, including a partial government shutdown, an escalating conflict in the Middle East, and a major court setback on his tariff policies. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday showed that 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s ‌job performance, down from 40% in a similar poll conducted last week.