Massive $430M oil bets placed minutes ahead of Trump's Iran ceasefire extension

A series of anonymous bets worth $430 million, placed mere moments before a ceasefire extension with Iran, has triggered intense scrutiny of potential insider-trading allegations. The traders placed these bets mere 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced that he was extending the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely. This isn't an isolated incident. It marks the third time this month that massive bets against oil prices were placed just ahead of major Iran-related announcements. 

The announcement came at 8:10 p.m. GMT, whereas the trades took place between 7:54 p.m. and 7:56 p.m. GMT, Reuters reported. Moreover, the Brent market winds up by 6:30 p.m. GMT, which means that the trades took place at a time when the volumes are usually low, as per the report. Brent ​crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 immideately after Trump's ceasefire announcement.

The first instance of a dubious trade came to light on March 23, 2026, when traders bet nearly $550 million over a drop in the oil price 15 minutes before Trump relayed his intention to delay the plan to attack Iranian power infrastructure. As per a Financial Times report, a roughly $1.5 billion bet on S&P 500 futures was reportedly placed just before the news. The trend continued in April; on April 7, 2026, when bets worth $950 million were made ​hours before Trump declared a two-week ceasefire. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched an investigation into the oil futures trades, Reuters reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

The latest bet reveals how Trump's second term in office has been marked with instances of traders betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements. After examining trade volume data, the BBC found a consistent pattern of spikes before the President's social media posts or statements made during media interviews. For instance, an anonymous account bet $32,000 on Maduro being ousted in January 2026 and managed to win $436,000. During the course of the Iran war, bets amounting to around $2.5 billion were made, with over $2 billion made in April alone.

The reports have raised questions about the conduct of the Trump administration, which has rallied to prevent Congress members from profiting through insider trading. In his State of the Union address, Trump had urged the swift passage of the Stop Insider Trading Act, saying, "As we ensure that all Americans can profit from a rising stock market, let's also ensure that members of Congress cannot corruptly profit using inside information."

The White House has previously denied the allegations, with spokesperson Kush Desai saying, "The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting."