Breakthrough or brinkmanship? Iran heads to negotiations with US as military tensions surge in Gulf

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Geneva today, February 16, amid intense international speculation that a breakthrough may be on the horizon for the U.S. and Tehran to resume formal nuclear negotiations. However, scepticism towards such a possibility also remains high.  

Ahead of the second round of talks with the U.S., Araghchi is meeting Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and was also expected to meet his Omani counterpart, Badr al-Busaidi. Tuesday's meeting between Agrahchi and the U.S delegation, comprising Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, comes at a time when both the U.S. and Iran have escalated military activity in the Gulf. 

Military tensions at an all-time high

Tensions between the two nations have been at an all-time high since the U.S. downed an Iranian drone that was approaching the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea on February 4. Additionally, on February 13, President Donald Trump ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, to the Middle East to join the USS Abraham Lincoln. Iran, meanwhile, is conducting naval drills at the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most sensitive waterways through which approximately 20% of the world's oil flows. 

After landing in Geneva on Monday, Araghchi informed in a post on X that he is looking forward to a "fair and equitable deal." "I am in Geneva with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal. What is not on the table: submission before threats," he wrote. The Iranian Foreign Minister also informed that his meeting with Grossi would focus on "deep technical discussion," "ahead of diplomacy with (the) U.S. on Tues."

Notably, U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio told Bloomberg in an interview that the U.S. President is open to meeting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini to discuss a deal if Iran so desires. However, given recent statements made by Trump, the U.S. is expected to push for regime change—something that Iran is unlikely to cede to. In a recent exchange with reporters, Trump had said that a regime change in the country "would be the best thing that could happen." 

Iran-U.S deal: What's on the table? 

During Trump's first term as President, the U.S. had unilaterally withdrawn from the Iran Nuclear Deal (formally, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), calling it the "worst deal ever". This was followed by a list of sweeping demands, unveiled by then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2018. Apart from permanently abandoning its nuclear programme, the U.S. demanded that Iran halt the development and launching of all nuclear-capable missile systems, and end support for Middle East "terrorist groups," specifically the Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. In return, the U.S. had promised to lift all sanctions and normalize relations with Tehran. 

However, during President Trump's current tenure, a series of military confrontations, coupled with large-scale protests facing brutal government crackdown in Iran, have hardened the U.S.A.'s stance towards reaching an agreement. Trump has, on several occasions, threatened direct military action against Tehran if the Iranian government penalised protestors. Iran will "pay Hell" Trump had said, if they went ahead with mass executions of protestors.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that stopping the enrichment process should not be a good enough reason to stop the deal. Addressing the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, Netanyahu said, "There shall be no enrichment capability—not stopping the enrichment process, but dismantling the equipment and the infrastructure that allows you to enrich in the first place." The statements came after the Israeli PM met Trump last week to discuss economic strongholds on Iran. As per an Axios report, Netanyahu told Trump it would be impossible to make a good deal, while Trump said, "Let’s give it a shot." 

On the other hand, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi has signaled over the weekend that Tehran is willing to consider "real compromises", specifically diluting its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, if the U.S. agrees to lift financial sanctions. The meeting is taking place even as Iran continues its navy drills, and the USS Gerald R. Ford heads towards the Gulf. The reassignment of the US aircraft carrier, both Trump and Rubio have said, is a last resort if the U.S. fails to strike a deal with Iran.